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Medal Projection in judo 100 days in advance of the Tokyo Games
Medal Projection in judo 100 days in advance of the Tokyo Games
14 Apr 2021 16:25

100 days in advance of the Tokyo Olympic Games countries are warming up to set record of medals. However due to the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the Tokyo Olympic Games is likely to be the most unpredictable Olympics ever. As usual, Nielsen Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table publishes its medal projection in advance. When it comes to judo there are 15 events with all 4 medals to gain.

Followers of JudoInside have a good idea of the future medal distribution for Tokyo and it’s clear that Japan will be the leading nation, being at home in the heart of judo and supported without foreign crowd, the Japanese athletes have even more chances. Japan is expected to improve on its Rio 2016 medal total by over 40%, this increase is not likely enough for the host nation to genuinely challenge China for second place looking over all sports. After falling to 70 medals in 2016, China is expected to bounce back in Tokyo to cement second place on the Virtual Medal Table for the third successive Summer Olympics. The same will be applicable for judo.

100 days ahead of the rescheduled 2020 Tokyo Olympics opening ceremonies Gracenote released its latest Summer Games Virtual Medal Table forecast. We will take a look at the Judo nations in the top 6.

United States  (Tokyo 2020 projection: 114 medals, 2016: 121 medals)

The U.S. is expected to once again top the Summer Games Virtual Medal Table in 2020 but will likely have no medals from judo

China (Tokyo 2020: 85 medals, 2016: 70 medals)

China’s total of 70 medals in 2016 was the country’s lowest return since 2004 and the current Gracenote projection expects big improvement on this at Tokyo 2020. In Judo there might be a medal in the women’s +78kg but even that is doubtful.

Russian Olympic Committee (Tokyo 2020: 73 medals, 2016: 56 medals)

It is currently unclear which athletes will be allowed to compete in Tokyo under the Russian Olympic Committee banner. We expect that Russian judoka can compete though under a neutral flag and will be able to gain medals among its men’s team. For women there is growth, but an Olympic medal is further away then in 2016 when Kuziutina took bronze U52kg.

Japan  (Tokyo 2020: 59 medals, 2016: 41 medals)

Tokyo 2020 host nation Japan won a record-breaking 41 medals at the Rio Olympics in 2016 and Gracenote currently projects them to improve on that total by over 40%. The expected gains should come from a combination of more medals in all of Japan’s strongest sports and potential success in new and returning sports which hosts historically enjoy. Japan’s projected judo medals can be even 15, in each category. Men’s U81kg and U90kg have become more uncertain.

Netherlands (Tokyo 2020: 46 medals, 2016: 19 medals)

The best-ever Dutch medal winning performance at a Summer Olympics was Sydney 2000 (25 medals). The current projection is for the Netherlands to comfortably beat this record at Tokyo 2020 with more medals forecast in cycling – track, cycling – road and sailing than ever before. In Judo there are chances given the performances at the World Masters, but it is a different field as the Olympic Games. Still judo medals can be achieved in women’s 63kg, 70kg, 78kg and men’s 81kg, 90kg, 100kg and +100kg. That would be the ultimate haul. More likely a target of three medals is valid.

France (Tokyo 2020: 41 medals, 2016: 42 medals)

At this year’s Summer Games, the data suggests that France should produce a medal winning performance similar to 2016. If France again wins 40 or more medals, it would be the fifth time that the French team has broken the 40-medal barrier. The number of medals forecast for France in judo has increased to possibly even 7 in the women’s weight classes and 1 in the men’s category for Riner. We don’t expect France though to take 7 medals but for now it’s possible.

The Judo tournament will start at 24 July in 101 days.